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ARLINGTON,
VA — The fatal crash rate for 16-year-old drivers declined sharply
after states began enacting graduated licensing laws in the 1990s. Fatal
crash involvements based on the population of 16 year-olds fell 26
percent during 1993-2003. This is the main finding of a new Insurance
Institute for Highway Safety study.
The
overall number of 16-year-old drivers in fatal crashes decreased from
1,084 in 1993 to 938 in 2003, while during the same period there was an
18 percent increase in the 16-year-old population.
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Licensing
of 16-year-old drivers and fatal
crash
rates involving 16-year-old drivers
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Percentage
of 16 year-olds licensed
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Fatal
crashes
per
100,000 population
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1993
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42 |
31 |
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1994
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42 |
32 |
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1995
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43 |
35 |
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1996
|
41 |
33 |
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1997
|
43 |
31 |
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1998
|
43 |
29 |
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1999
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37 |
29 |
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2000
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37 |
26 |
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2001
|
34 |
24 |
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2002
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32 |
27 |
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2003
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31 |
23 |
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"This
isn't a study of graduated licensing per se. It's a look at the
status of 16 year-olds in states both with and without graduated
licensing. Still, this study does reveal some very positive
effects of the new licensing systems. The main reason for the
decline in the crash rate is that fewer beginning drivers are
getting their licenses when they turn 16," says Susan
Ferguson, Institute senior vice president for research.
While
the population-based ratio of fatal crash involvements declined,
the 2003 rate based on the number of licensed drivers didn't
change compared with the 1993 rate. Seventy-three 16-year-old
drivers per 100,000 license holders were in fatal crashes in
1993. This compares with 74 per 100,000 in 2003.
"In
time we do expect to see a drop in the fatal crash rates per
licensed 16-year-old driver," Ferguson says. "This
will happen if more states implement stronger restrictions on
night driving and on passengers in cars with beginning drivers.
A number of states don't have these policies, and states that do
often allow one or
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more passengers or apply the restrictions
during short time periods.
These restrictions are expected to have the strongest influence
on fatal crashes per licensed driver. In the meantime, studies in
several states that have looked at all police- reported crashes, not just
fatal ones, have found significant declines per licensed driver."
Teenagers
have the highest crash risk of any age group — about four times higher
than for older drivers. Teenagers are more likely than older drivers to
be in crashes involving driver error and speeding.
"The
riskiest time for teens is when they first start driving," Ferguson
points out. "The key to the effectiveness of graduated licensing is
that it phases in a driver's license over time, keeping teens in the
learner phase longer and delaying a full-privilege license until
beginners are older, more mature, and more experienced."
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An
important finding of the new Institute study is that
restrictions on 16 year-olds did not simply shift the crash risk
to older teens. Crash rates dropped 11 percent for 17 year-olds
and 6 percent for 18-19 year-olds.
One
of the most dangerous scenarios is when a teenage driver
transports other teens and, on a per capita basis, this kind of
crash declined 39 percent during 1993-2003. Meanwhile, most
other characteristics of 16 year-olds' crashes stayed the same
over time.
A
full graduated licensing law has three stages. Beginners must
remain in each of the first two stages for minimum time periods:
supervised learner's period; intermediate license (after the
driver's test is passed) limiting unsupervised driving in
high–risk situations; and then a license with full privileges
available after completing the first two stages. Key elements of
the intermediate stage include limits on unsupervised driving at
night and transporting teenage passengers. Certification by
parents that a learner has driven a minimum number of supervised
hours also is important. |
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Estimated
crash reductions in selected jurisdictions with
graduated licensing
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Crash
reduction |
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British
Columbia
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16%
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California
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0-28%
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Florida
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9%
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Michigan
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29%
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North
Carolina
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23%
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Nova
Scotia
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23-37%
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Ohio
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23%
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Note
The percentage reductions shown for California
are based on three studies, two
of
which found crash reductions of 17 and 28
percent.
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"Parents
are key to the success of graduated licensing," Ferguson adds.
"The laws empower parents to set down their own rules of the road
and enforce them. This is especially needed because the laws in many
states still aren't strong. They don't all have three stages of a true
graduated system, and some laws that do have the stages still don't
restrict driving at night or with other teens."
Source:
IIHS Newsroom
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